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[STBI-31-07-2018] Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Global Production of Coffee: A Panel Data Analysis of Exporting Countries

Dear professors, colleagues and students,
We would like to invite you to participate in the 2018 STBI Brown Bag Series at the UEH School of Economics.

We welcome Dr. Le Vu Quan to present his ideas during the Brown Bag session.

Topic: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Global Production of Coffee: A Panel Data Analysis of Exporting Countries

Time: 11:30 – Tuesday, 31th July, 2018

Venue: Room H.001, Campus H, UEH School of Economics, 1A Hoang Dieu, Phu Nhuan District

The language of presentation: Vietnamese


We develop a model to understand the future of global coffee production in the face of climate change. To get a holistic perspective, we examine the entire global coffee supply covering a period of over 20 years from 1992-2015. The novelty of this paper is the way we construct instrumental variables. Generally, it is difficult or practically impossible to find instrumental variables that are uncorrelated with the regressors. Our modelling approach allows us to construct such series that are guaranteed to be uncorrelated with any regressors we will use. This is possible because we were able to extrapolate structural shocks such as supply, demand and speculative shocks in the coffee market, and then use those shocks as instrumental variables. We find that there is a positive effect of increase in prices paid to farmers and the supply of coffee. In addition, by including structural coffee market shocks as instrumental variables in the fixed effects model, we find that climatic variables tend to underestimate the effects of supply shocks on the quantity of coffee grown. By using this model, we believe that we can deliver a more accurate understating of price elasticity and the potential impacts of climate change on global production of coffee.

Speaker: Le Vu Quan

Eva Albers Professor of Economics and Director of the International Business Programs at Seattle University. Dr. Le teaches primarily in the areas of international economics, macroeconomics, and economic development. His research is in the areas of institutions, governance, global health, and entrepreneurship. He has been published in a number of academic journals including Journal of International Money and Finance, International Review of Financial Analysis, Public Health, and International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research. Dr. Le has twice been a recipient of the Fulbright Scholar – in 2005-2006 at the Vietnam National University in Hanoi and in 2015-2016 at the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program in Ho Chi Minh City. He is a regular visiting faculty at several universities in Vietnam. He also provides consulting services to NGOs, government agencies, and multilateral institutions in Vietnam.

To get more information, you can visit the website:

The 2018 STBI (Small Talk Big Idea) Brown Bag Series is built upon the success of the STBI Seminar. This year, the organizing team has decided to experiment with a new format to make the event less formal and more open. It is held from 11:30 a.m to 12:15 p.m. and the speaker and audience will have 10 minutes to mingle and complete their lunch of bánh mì which is normally wrapped in brown bags. The School of Economics will provide free coffee and water for everyone and a sandwich/bánh mì lunch for the speaker. If the weather permits, the presentation will be held in the lobby area at the School's venue on Hoang Dieu Street, Phu Nhuan District.

You are encouraged to bring your own bánh mì for lunch and mingle with the speaker at the beginning of the session.

Organizing Team